Exit Polls and Exit Interviews

For the two days preceding the Bihar election results on 8^th November 2015, most TV channels indulged in serious as well as trivial debates based on exit polls sponsored or partnered by the respective broadcast companies. If we take the average of nine different exit polls that got published NDA was to win 119 seats and the Grand Alliance to win 117 seats. In other words, all the pollsters predicted a narrow victory to one of the two formations. Obviously, the real outcome on the 8^th of November was miles away from the predictions by the exit pollsters.

It was intriguing to most rational Indians as to why is it that a country that launched an unmanned spacecraft to the Mars can’t do an approximately accurate post poll survey.

Well, not completely true. There was one exit poll agency (Axis) which predicted between 169 and 183 seats for the Grand Alliance and 58 to 70 seats to the NDA. They were the most accurate going by the final outcomes. But unfortunately the channel that sponsored this agency refused to air their findings for some unknown reasons.

We knew that millions of citizens cast their votes in Bihar. We also knew that within 48 hours of closing of the last phase of voting the actual votes will be counted and results published by reliable government machinery. Then, what value is added by two days of discussions around highly unreliable and speculative predictions of those exit polls?

The answer probably is: pure entertainment. The dance of democracy is the new Bharatanatyam! The voter fooled the pollster, the pollster fooled the media company and the media company fooled the public! These exit polls didn’t serve any other useful purpose.

You would tend to think that such purposeless things happen in media and politics, but not in private companies. Wait a minute.  Corporate companies conduct exit interviews when employees quit, just as the exit pollsters conduct interview with the voters after they have voted. Fortunately they don’t figure as much in the TV debates and media and hence the public is spared. Exit interview results are meant for private circulation. Many companies do this as a mandatory agenda of the employee separation process. The hope is that employees give honest feedback when they are leaving the company and the objective is to use the feedback for improving the way employees’ careers are shaped or facilities provided to potentially reduce the rate of employee attrition.

Very noble intention, indeed! But does it happen? No is the frequent answer. Why?

In many large organizations, often an HR representative or a third person conducts the exit interview. When the employee is loosely engaged with the organization she does not have much motivation to give an ‘honest’ feedback. Even if she wants to give an honest feedback she will think it unwise to make any sharp (read truthful) comments. Instead she will make some generally accepted positives and a few improvement areas to get out of this one item from a long exit checklist. She knows that there may be some reference check in future or for a safe return to the same company it is better to play safe now.

The person administering the exit interview too is doing this last ritual with a sense of detachment and a sense of duty rather with a sense of purpose. Someone with a sense of purpose will probably go beyond the format and seek genuine feedback. This too is an ideal situation rarely happening in most organizations.

Now, assuming there is indeed some genuine and useful input coming from the exit interview reports, few in the management hierarchy has time and mind share to delve into the underlying messages of the exit interview feedback. In best organizations this can be the last agenda in an otherwise packed business review. In other organizations, the exit interviews are done, circulated among some managers, quarterly summary made, quickly glanced and forgotten.

      So what needs to be done with exit interviews? Here are some suggestions.      

1. Make the exit interview voluntary. Let the employee decide if she wants to share any feedback at the time of leaving. Probably a few voluntary responses are better than a lot of mandatory interrogations. 
2. Provide multiple ways for an employee to provide exit feedback. (a) employee post on a specified site either under signature or anonymously; (b) send feedback in mail to the manager, manager’s manager or to HR representative; (c) talk to a company person in confidence, without any recording.
3. Pick one important or recurring feedback every quarter, act on it and broadcast to employees about what is done.
4. Complement the exit interview feedback with regular stay interviews (check what makes the employee stay with the company, and what will make the stay more meaningful and enjoyable) with random employees or on the basis of some stratified sample.
5.  Enhance engagement with employees- by managers, leadership and HR on a planned manner to make the exit interview eventually redundant.

Why do companies conduct interviews at the time of recruitment? Because, they are strangers and there is a need to know them before taking a hiring decision. Why do companies conduct exit interviews? May be because employees are still strangers in some way!

Chicken Soup for the Surviving Souls

While the hype around start-ups continues we start hearing about some start-ups laying off their employees. Layoffs are surely a matter of pain for those laid off with or without golden handshakes. This piece is not for those unfortunate souls. This is for the remaining unfortunate and unlaid-off employees.

How does one shield oneself against a possible layoff? Here is my ‘Ducking Layoff- 101’.

If you are yet not laid off, constantly keep in mind that you are in the queue. This is not negative thinking but proactive thinking. If you are reasonably sure that you stand a fair chance (you sure, are working in an organization that is fair. Hence you always stand a fair chance) of being laid off, probably you would build exit barriers for yourself and entry barriers for others (to get into your office chair). Fear could be a good motivator to run in a dangerous situation. Imagine a hungry tiger is chasing you. If you run instantly and at Usain Bolt’s speed chances are that you reach a safe place and the tiger spots something better on the way. If you don’t run you become instant breakfast.

I am told companies lay off the least suited guys first and not always go by the LIFO (last in first out) method. So your seniority need not be a guarantee against lay off. But who decides your suitability? When you joined the company you were told the company hires only the brightest talent! But that was then; no harm re-checking now. What you can do is to check with your boss, boss’s boss and 10 friends closer to boss and boss’ boss whether you are suitable. And do this every day. Every day is a new day. Why take a risk? I am reminded of a story about the Roman soldiers whose first job in the morning was to check and report if their heads are on their shoulders! Of course, they were not worried about being laid off but there was always the Damocles’ sword hanging over their neck!

The feedback mechanism as discussed above need not work well all the time in all organizations. Only a few people around you want to tell the truth. Those who want to tell the truth do not want to give a bad news. Those who want to give a bad news do not know how to break the bad news. Not all are trained counselors. Therefore, with all good intentions and regular feedback, you could still be in the dark valley of misinformation. So what to do? When others do not do it for you, the best way is to do it yourself. What would you do if on one fine morning your driver did not turn up? You drive the car yourself. So, walk around every day and tell your boss, your boss’ boss and 10 friends who are close to the boss and boss’ boss, that you are the last person the company can afford to lose. Do it everyday. People will start believing you. Repetition builds reputation. My friend told me that an ounce of reputation is worth more than a ton of hard work.

OK, I know you are not confident of always coming up winner in this game of image building. So you can do some crowd sourcing for this exercise. To start with, make 10 other people (if you can manage the same old 10 guys who are close to the boss and boss’ boss, nothing like that) talk about you and testify that you are the most wanted guy in the organization. You know the power of word of mouth publicity. But there is a catch to it. What is the big motivation for your 10 trusted friends to talk great about you? It could be that by doing so, they are reaching the end of the queue faster than you! There is a way. Get into a mutual agreement. You talk great about them and they reciprocate. It is the same old principle of you scratching my back and I yours. This might work. ‘Scratch and win a prize’ is a proven technique in sales!

But will it work always? There is no one trick that works always. You know that. So what is the solution? When one trick does not work, you need more tricks. Have you heard of in-basket exercises or assessment centers? The principle is same. Use a battery of tricks to get the best results. But even then these tricks may not work. Your boss need not be as dumb as you think. And it is possible that the boss himself could be trying the same tricks. After all he too has a fair chance in the organization!

Now you have two options. Invent more tricks and continue the trial and error method till you are on the payroll. Second, turn real and sincerely do your job well and leave everything else to your karma!