Tuesday 28 March 2017

Fooled by Certainty

Everyone wants a clear and definite answer for a question. Anyone who speaks in a definite ýes’ or ‘no’ is preferred to someone who says ‘may be’. Most of us are taught that knowledge is meant to make people discern what is right and what is wrong or to choose the best from a given set of choices. Education is often meant to prepare students to develop the faculty to know or at least to choose the right answer. More so in the last quarter of a century when most examination questions are in the form of choosing from multiple options. People build convictions around things and experiences, at times too quickly and at times slowly.

Most people prefer to live in a world of binaries- yes or no; black or white. That’s comfortable, efficient and even considered the right way to live. Most of the crucial life decisions are based on such binaries. You either pass or fail a test and there is nothing in between. In most games, you either win or lose, though some games are occasionally drawn. Hardly any sports lover wants it that way. Every one wants a winner and at least one loser at the end of the game; in fact, most games produce more losers than winners. If the game hasn’t produced a winner at the end of the stipulated time, find a way to clinch the deal in favor of one. Even a ‘sudden death’ is preferable to a drawn game! Football lovers like penalty shoot outs and sudden death rather than their blood pressure shooting up in the anxiety of uncertainty.

Yes, there are opposing forces and contrasting realities in the world we live. Yet, human experiences are not always like day and night. It is not that on a given day we have equal measure of pleasure and pain. It is not that a given academic test cut off indicates success or failure. It is not that some people are honest and others are crooks. It is often that some are less honest than others or some are less crooked than others. Real life is more often being tentative or ‘uncertain’ rather than being certain.

Dig a bit deeper and you will find that this world of binaries is a highly over-simplified and often imaginary world. In the real world everyone is a winner at times and loser at other times. But we still prefer to label people as either winners or losers; good or bad. That makes choices easy for us. It is easy for us to cast our vote for a ‘good’ candidate or to choose a ‘good’ school for our children. Or even create a clear caste system of preferences, perceptions and labels for people around us and beyond our vicinity. That sounds almost like analyzing anything in the world in a four-quadrant BCG matrix (introduced first by Boston Consulting Group) or grouping the destinies of all the people in the world under 12 zodiac signs or all the people in the world into 16 ‘personality types’ using the MBTI (Myers-Briggs Type Indicator).

None of us can escape the craving for certainty. Probably our ancestors faced a world of greater uncertainties and by generations of mutations and civilizations we have evolved to cut out uncertainties from our mind by consciously pulling things into clear boxes, definitions and belief systems. Yet, we are all certain that we live in an uncertain world! Well, who lived in world of certainty, ever?

Dealing with uncertainty has become a required competence for leadership today. While one has practically no escape from uncertainty, getting comfortable with uncertainty is the harder part. Just as the ‘unknown’ is the bigger field of knowledge, ‘uncertainty’ provides greater meaning to life.  

Suspend certainty. Be tentative. Be tender, rather than solid like a rock! Certainty is a path to delusion. Certainty is often suspension of knowledge than expression of knowledge. The more we know about something the less certain we are about it. Certainly, I am not claiming to be certain about that, though!


‘The quest for certainty blocks the search for meaning. Uncertainty is the very condition to impel man to unfold his powers.’ – Erich Fromm, Renowned psychoanalyst and philosopher of 20th Century